Elon Musk suspects that Joe Biden might release Sam Bankman Fried of FTX from prison before the end of his term as president.
On Twitter, the famous billionaire entrepreneur explicitly said that this would not surprise him, given the financial connection between the two.
Let’s see all the details below.
Elon Musk would not be surprised if Biden offered a pardon to SBF of FTX
Elon Musk, commenting on a post on X by “Wall Street Mav,” said that he wouldn’t be surprised if Biden decided to offer a pardon to Sam Bankman Fried, founder of FTX.
The head of Tesla, waiting to join Donald Trump in the next presidency, thus launches a veiled jab at the democratic rival.
By the end of his term, Biden will have free rein to decide on the alleged release of SBF, sentenced to 25 years for fraud against investors.
This last one has been identified as the main party responsible for the collapse of FTX, causing a severe liquidity gap of as much as 8 billion dollars.
At the same time SBF was one of the major financiers of Joe Biden’s electoral campaign, having donated 5.2 million dollars.
The same is considered as one of the largest political donors ever for the Democrats, with total contributions of 70 million dollars in less than 18 months.
Given the political connection between the two figures, Musk bets on a possible pardon from the current President in office, who will definitively leave the White House on January 20. The billionaire entrepreneur, appointed as the next head of government efficiency (DOGE), as usual, uses strong words for his public statements.
Clearly, there are no guarantees that Biden will comment on the FTX issue, especially considering the media impact of the story.
The release of SBF would also bring a new climate of distrust for the democrats from the crypto community, who consider the 32-year-old entrepreneur a true cybercriminal.
Situation Poly Market: odds increase for the pardon of the head of FTX
In conjunction with Elon Musk’s statement, on the prediction market Polymarket the probabilities of a release of the head of FTX have significantly increased.
Initially, the odds of a pardon from Biden remained unchanged at 5%, suggesting that Musk’s comment had not triggered any speculative movement.
A few hours later, however, the chart of Polymarket indicated a bull probability of 16%, following the trades of some traders.
At the time of writing, the odds have even gone up to 20%, with a total trading volume of 1.1 million dollars.
Given the still illiquid and easily manipulable market, it seems difficult to think that the former FTX could really be freed, considering the devastating impact of its crimes on the financial stability of the USA.
Much more likely, however, is a possible pardon from Biden to Fauci, Jim Biden, Liz Cheney, and Adam Schiff, according to the updated bull and bear of Polymarket.
At the same time, Polymarket also offers a market to bet on the potential pardon of Donald Trump 100 days into his term.
Musk’s comment led to a slight increase in the odds that the Republican will decide to offer a pardon to SBF, rising from 2% to 5%.
Much more feasible, however, is the release of Ross Ulbricht, founder of the Silk Road black market, who has been serving a life sentence since 2017.
The chances of a pardon are currently at 67%, significantly up after Trump’s promise to his voters from the crypto community.
Elon Musk never trusted Sam Bankman Fried
The comment by Elon Musk on an alleged pardon by Joe Biden for the founder of FTX should be contextualized with the political clash between Republicans and Democrats.
The right shoulder of Donald Trump can only express negative opinions about the rival Biden and the one who illegally financed his electoral campaign.
To all this is added a precedent between Elon Musk and Sam Bankman Fried, which dates back to a few months before the 44 billion dollar acquisition of Twitter
On that occasion, the former CEO of FTX had approached Musk, offering himself as a potential investor in the deal with Jack Dorsey and the other shareholders.
In particular, he had offered a good 3 billion dollars, attracting the attention of the current bull of the social media who, however, chose another path.
The former head of FTX had requested a blockchain integration on Twitter in exchange for money, but it was formally refused.
Musk had smelled something fishy and was skeptical about SBF holding 3 billion dollars in liquid assets to invest in a business unrelated to his main cryptocurrency business.
In his place, CZ from Binance was chosen, with a significantly smaller offer of 500 million dollars, which, however, had far fewer problems with the law.
If he had accepted SBF’s proposal, Musk would now have had to return the entire amount to the company’s creditors and to the FTX trustee appointed after the bankruptcy declaration.