In summary
- Price 104535.34 USDT sits below D1 EMAs and near the lower Bollinger band.
- Momentum RSI 36.18 neutral D1 with a slight downside bias.
- Bitcoin dollar price shows H1 bearish momentum while M15 hints at short-term relief.
Multi-timeframe analysis
Bitcoin dollar price technical view
D1 (daily)
Close 104535.34 USDT. Price trades below the 20/50/200 EMAs (110249.94 / 112142.08 / 109063.04), which signals a bearish alignment on the daily chart.
RSI 36.18 below 50, indicating a bearish tilt and limited upside momentum on D1.
MACD line -1599.86 vs signal -1217.47 (hist -382.39) MACD is negative and the line is below signal, showing bearish momentum is active.
Bollinger mid 109542.76, upper 114548.19, lower 104537.33. Price sits just below the lower band, suggesting intraday oversold pressure and compressed volatility.
ATR 3239.24 relatively wide daily moves; use a larger buffer for stop placement.
Pivot PP 105146.45, R1 106687.89, S1 102993.89. The pivot sits above current price and acts as near-term resistance.
H1 (hourly)
Close 104535.34 USDT. Price is below EMA20/50/200 (105685.83 / 107195.83 / 109456.75), confirming an intraday bearish bias.
RSI 37.76 momentum is weak and favors sellers on the hourly timeframe.
MACD line -1032.39 vs signal -885.77 (hist -146.62) Histogram negative, so short-term momentum still points down.
Bollinger mid 105923.38, low 103386.67. Price is nearer the lower band but above it, indicating room for intraday mean reversion or continued pressure.
ATR 934.82 expect ~1k USDT moves on the hour; adjust intraday risk accordingly.
M15 (15-min)
Close 104497.69 USDT. Price is above EMA20 (104331.98) but below EMA50/200, showing short-term support but limited follow-through.
RSI 49.07 neutral momentum on the micro timeframe; buyers and sellers are balanced.
MACD line -373.60 vs signal -514.67 (hist 141.07) positive histogram implies short-term buying pressure may push a bounce.
Bollinger mid 104129.27, up 104751.35. Price sits between the middle and upper band, which hints at a local compression that could resolve either way.
Synthesis D1 is neutral with bearish features while H1 leans bearish and M15 shows short-term recovery. Overall structure is cautious and range prone.
Key levels
| Level | Type | Bias / Note |
|---|---|---|
| 110249.94 USDT | D1 EMA20 | Resistance; daily bulls need a clear reclaim. |
| 112142.08 USDT | D1 EMA50 | Major resistance; keeps trend lower while price is below. |
| 109063.04 USDT | D1 EMA200 | Longer-term resistance; trend filter for D1. |
| 105146.45 USDT | Daily Pivot (PP) | Near-term resistance and trigger for intraday bullish scenario. |
| 104537.33 USDT | Daily BB Lower | Support; price is at/just below this band watch for an oversold bounce. |
| 102993.89 USDT | Daily S1 | Support; invalidation for a neutral-to-bullish turn on D1. |
Trading scenarios (main: neutral)
Bullish scenario
Trigger Sustained close above daily pivot 105146.45 USDT and follow-through toward the D1 EMA20.
Target R1 106687.89 USDT then monitor 110249.94 USDT (EMA20) as a higher target if momentum strengthens.
Invalidation A close below S1 102993.89 USDT would invalidate this bullish path on D1.
Risk Use stops sized to 0.5 61.0D1 ATR (approx. 1619.62 63239.24 USDT) to respect daily volatility.
Bearish scenario
Trigger Failure to reclaim pivot and a decisive daily close below S1 102993.89 USDT.
Target Move toward the lower ends of recent ranges; further targets not provided by the facts.
Invalidation A sustained recovery above PP 105146.45 USDT would weaken the bearish case.
Risk Stops 0.5 61.0D1 ATR (approx. 1619.62 63239.24 USDT) to allow for volatility spikes.
Neutral / Range scenario
Trigger Price oscillates between PP 105146.45 USDT and S1 102993.89 USDT without decisive momentum.
Target Trade the range: sell near the pivot and buy nearer S1 while volatility remains contained.
Invalidation A clear breakout above EMA20 or breakdown below S1 shifts the regime.
Risk For range plays use M15/H1 ATR (392.94 / 934.82) for tighter stops and intraday sizing.
Market context
Total cap 3551078721153.75 USD the broader market is down 3.64% in 24h, which increases downside risk for risk-on assets.
BTC dominance 58.58% high dominance often keeps altcoins under pressure while Bitcoin consolidates.
Fear & Greed Index 21 (Extreme Fear) sentiment is risk-averse and may amplify sell moves; it can also set the stage for sharp mean-reversions.
Ecosystem (DeFi)
DEX fees Uniswap V3, Uniswap V2, Curve and others show mixed daily changes; several platforms report large fee increases in the last 1 30 days, indicating selective on-chain activity.
Interpretation Mixed fees suggest selective participation across DeFi platforms rather than broad risk-on behavior.
Recent news
Headline Bitcoin hits a two-week low and market risk appetite is muted after a wipeout, per the provided headlines.
Headline Comments from Powell cautioning against rate-cut bets were noted as extending losses earlier these macro cues can pressure crypto prices.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. #NFA #DYOR