Circle’s stablecoin has seized a key on-chain metric from Tether, with usdc transaction volume now in the spotlight for analysts tracking long-term dominance.
USDC surpasses USDT in adjusted transaction volume
Research from Mizuho, published on Friday, March 13, shows that USDC has overtaken USDT in adjusted transaction volume on a year-to-date basis. This marks USDC‘s first volume leadership since 2019, ending Tether’s extended run at the top of this specific metric.
According to Mizuho’s data, USDC processed approximately $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume year-to-date, compared with $1.3 trillion for USDT over the same period. Moreover, these figures translate into USDC controlling 64% of adjusted volume when comparing the two leading stablecoins, based on Mizuho’s calculations.
Mizuho defines “adjusted volume” as transactions involving centralized exchanges, decentralized exchanges, and other identified entities, or participants who have not exceeded specific activity benchmarks. In practice, this filters for transactions that appear to represent genuine person-to-person or institutional value transfers rather than repetitive, low-value activity.
The analysts highlighted examples such as corporate supplier payments, user wagers on platforms like Polymarket, and capital flows between centralized exchanges and DeFi protocols. However, highly automated or circular flows are more likely to be excluded under this framework, which aims to capture meaningful economic activity.
Why volume is now central to the stablecoin race
For Mizuho’s team, transaction volume provides better predictive power than market capitalization when assessing which stablecoin could dominate in the long run. The bank argues that, over time, the leading asset will be the one used most in real-world and digital economic activity, not simply the token with the largest supply.
“We believe that longer term, the [stablecoin] winner will be the one mostly used in everyday economic activity, rather than just the highest market cap,” the analysts wrote. That said, Tether still leads decisively on market value despite losing share on the activity side.
Market capitalization leadership remains with USDT. Tether’s stablecoin holds roughly $184 billion in total value, far ahead of USDC’s $79 billion. However, Mizuho’s view suggests that sustained leadership in usdc transaction volume could, over time, chip away at this capitalization gap if adoption trends persist.
The shift in usage patterns also adds a new dimension to how investors interpret stablecoin market share. While supply data continues to matter for liquidity and trading, on-chain activity is increasingly seen as a barometer for real demand and integration into crypto transaction flows.
Circle’s NYSE listing and upgraded price target
Circle completed its public listing on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025, giving public equity investors direct exposure to USDC’s growth trajectory. Despite the positive volume data, the company’s stock price showed minimal immediate reaction to the new Mizuho report.
In the same research publication, Mizuho raised its circle stock price target from $100 to $120. Moreover, the upgrade reflects analysts’ confidence that higher on-chain activity and the growing role of stablecoins in payments and trading could eventually translate into stronger revenue for Circle.
Investors are now weighing this higher target against ongoing regulatory and market-structure uncertainties. That said, the combination of increased activity, a larger share of adjusted volume, and an improved equity outlook positions Circle as a central player in the evolving dollar-backed token ecosystem.
Regulatory gridlock clouds the stablecoin outlook
In Washington, the policy backdrop for stablecoins remains unsettled. Proposed legislation aimed at clarifying the sector’s rules is struggling to advance, adding another layer of risk for issuers such as Circle and Tether. The uncertainty persists even as trading and decentralized exchange volume tied to dollar-pegged assets continue to expand.
The CLARITY Act has passed the House of Representatives but is now stalled in the Senate. Discussions around stablecoin yield distribution, ethics guidelines, and the treatment of tokenized securities have slowed momentum. Moreover, competing priorities in Congress have pushed digital asset legislation further down the agenda.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated on Thursday that the Senate would focus first on voting requirement legislation before considering digital asset market structure bills. He projected that the market structure package would not move forward before April, prolonging the wait for a comprehensive stablecoin regulatory update.
This legislative gridlock injects additional uncertainty into the broader regulatory environment just as Circle’s shares continue to trade on the NYSE. However, Mizuho’s analysis suggests that, despite these headwinds, usage trends and on-chain metrics may prove more decisive than short-term policy delays.
USDC’s first leadership since 2019
Based on Mizuho’s research dated March 13, 2026, USDC now controls 64% of adjusted volume between the two dominant stablecoins. This represents its first leadership position since 2019 and underscores a meaningful change in how capital is moving across both centralized and decentralized platforms.
In summary, USDC’s renewed strength in adjusted volume, Tether’s continued dominance in market capitalization, and Circle’s upgraded valuation target together capture a market in transition. The coming months will show whether sustained activity levels can cement a lasting shift in the balance of power among dollar-pegged assets.