Tom Lee: Bitcoin’s bear market is ending, possible upward close within 3 months

Yesterday Tom Lee spoke at Consensus 2026. 

During his speech he said: 

“If Bitcoin closes above $76,000 this month, the bear market is definitely over.”

His hypothesis is that the price of BTC could end up closing three consecutive months on the rise, and according to him this would mean the end of the current bear market. 

Tom Lee’s speech

In reality, of course, he also said many other things. 

But his reasoning on this specific point is actually very simple. 

First of all, he focuses his attention on monthly closes. 

In March the monthly close was above $68,000. In February it was below $67,000, and lower than the opening. 

So if in February the monthly candle turned out to be red (i.e. down), in March it was green instead. 

In April the monthly close was just above $76,000, and it was green. 

In May, for now, the candle is green. 

If May were to close above $76,400, there would have been three consecutive green (i.e. positive) monthly candles. 

Tom Lee’s reasoning is based precisely on this hypothesis, namely three consecutive months of gains. 

For now, although there are already three rising monthly closes, the full consecutive months of gains are still only two, but the current month also seems to be well on its way to ending in the positive. 

The point is that, according to Tom Lee, there have never been in the history of Bitcoin three consecutive months of gains within a bear market. 

This is why he stated that if the price of Bitcoin were to close May above $76,000 it could be said that the current bear market is over. 

What could happen next

Although what Tom Lee says should be considered substantially correct, a very important consideration needs to be added in this regard. 

In fact, it is by no means certain that once a bear market ends another one cannot begin. 

To tell the truth, there is a problem with the definition of the concept of “bear market” as far as cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are concerned. 

The original definition, dating back to the second half of the nineteenth century (1873), does not fit the crypto market perfectly. Indeed, practically no one uses that definition anymore to define a crypto bear market. 

There is therefore a classic “bear market”, and a slightly different “crypto bear market” “. 

However, neither of the two definitions implies that once a bear market ends another one cannot begin. 

The problem is that the definition of “crypto bear market” is not univocal. While the original definition is still always the same, there is still no agreement on that of the crypto bear market. 

Many, for example, by “crypto bear market” mean a long and deep bear market lasting about a year, but others mean only a bear market that is a bit deeper than the classic one without a specific duration. 

It is not clear which definition of crypto bear market Tom Lee is referring to, but the fact remains that it cannot be ruled out at all that once a bear market ends another one may then begin. 

The forecasts

The point is that for months there has been a forecast circulating that until June the price of Bitcoin could continue to rise. 

This forecast is not only proving to be correct, but is also perfectly in line with what Tom Lee says. 

Except that, since it cannot be ruled out that once a bear market ends another one may then begin, the hypothesis has also been circulating for months that in the second half of the year there could be a new downward trend.

In other words, the current bear market could also end, but in the second half of the year a new one could in theory begin. 

In the past the major Bitcoin bear markets have lasted about 12 months, whereas the scenario just described would envisage two much shorter bear markets, separated by a mini bull run like the current one. 

It should be emphasized, however, that the hypothesis of a second bear market in the second half of the year does not currently garner many supporters, whereas the hypothesis of a mini bull run until June was shared by several analysts. 

Quite simply, it is still too early to concretely hypothesize a new bear market in the coming months, although perhaps as early as June more could be known about it. 

All-time highs

At this moment, however, there is one forecast that really has a lot of support. 

It is in fact a shared opinion that in 2026 the price of Bitcoin may not have the strength to go and update its all-time highs. 

The current all-time high dates back to last October 6, when it surpassed $126,000.

Even if May were to close with a third consecutive month in green, to shoot up to $126,000 it would take either a speculative bubble in June, or more consecutive months of gains, which at this moment seem really unlikely. 

Moreover, although in theory one could also think of a small correction followed by another bull run, one must not forget the hypothesis according to which a new bear market could instead be triggered in the second half of the year. 

This does not take away, however, that in the event of a strong rebound next year, $126,000 in theory might not even be a particularly distant target. But since it is already difficult to predict what will happen in June, predicting what will happen next year is even more so.