Today the price of Bitcoin is at around $30,000, while yesterday it was at around $28,800: why is it up 4% in a single day?
In reality, the climb occurred yesterday, while today it seems fairly stable around $30,000.
Moreover, it is a climb that started several days ago.
The support at $25,000: Why is Bitcoin up today?
This recent phase begins when Bitcoin’s price tried to retest support at $25,000 a week ago.
By then it had been on a descent since late April, when it failed its first attempt of the year to stay above $30,000.
That descent, which lasted just under two months, ended up resting right on the support placed at $25,000.
In fact, rather than a true support price, it is the medium-term low, which formed an important resistance between February and March.
It is often the case that particularly tenacious resistances then turn into supports if they are broken through, and $25,000 this year was only broken through on 17 March after a month of failed attempts.
Since then it has always been a kind of medium-term support, on which not surprisingly the price of BTC rested last week.
Truth be told, on 14 June it had fallen as low as $24,800, but at that level it stayed there for a very short time, moving right back above the critical $25,000 threshold. That threshold held for two days.
The rebound to $25,000
After resting on the $25,000 support, the rebound began on 16 June and is actually still ongoing.
As a matter of fact, the real rebound after the fall to $25,000 did not occur until 16 June, with the return above $26,000. What happened next looks like something different, although confirmation is still necessary to make that clear.
In fact, for five days the price remained below $27,000, which is the level around which it has in fact been lateralizing just since 17 March, when it broke the $25,000 resistance.
Theoretically, should it actually be continuing the long phase of lateralization that has been going on for more than three months, the price should continue to oscillate right around $27,000. Thus in this case it should behave as it did in mid-April, when it tried to stay above $30,000 but failed to do so.
The end of lateralization
The point is that the strong rise that began two days ago could also constitute the end of the lateralization phase.
Right now there are two hypotheses that are popular.
The first is that the price may fall below $30,000 again, ending this new attempt to settle above this level. In that case simply the long phase of lateralization that began in the second half of March could go on for a while longer.
The second hypothesis is that instead this time it has the strength to stay above $30,000, although it may take more attempts to break through this resistance for good. In that case the period of lateralization would be over.
So why is Bitcoin going up today?
It is possible that there are root causes behind this rise that could result in the second hypothesis prevailing, namely the end of the lateralization period.
Indeed, the rise from $26,000 to $30,000 was too rapid to be just a simple rebound after the test of support placed at $25,000.
It seems to have mostly to do with the US market, and in particular what is happening in the US.
First of all, yesterday the Fed governor spoke positive words about the crypto markets. After the SEC attacks of the past few months, perhaps something changed yesterday in the attitude of US authorities toward cryptocurrencies.
However, this can only justify yesterday’s increase, which had actually started before Powell spoke, but not the previous day’s increase.
The thing is that large financial institutions, such as BlackRock, have made it clear that they intend to enter the crypto markets as major players, even if only as intermediaries and service providers.
This has led many to believe that these institutions believe that the crypto market is ready to explode, given that as of today it is still too small and too risk-filled to interest them.
Thus, markets have likely begun to price in a future surge of widespread interest in cryptocurrencies, and in particular Bitcoin, as many altcoins are at risk of being defined as unregistered securities.
All of this is generating positive sentiment for the future, which was simply not there in April.
Therefore, while the previous attempt a couple of months ago to rise above $30,000 failed, now the conditions for a breakthrough may be in place. Indeed, there may even be conditions for a rise toward $35,000, or even $40,000 by the end of the year.