Bitcoin value still around $30,000

It has been almost a month now that Bitcoin market value has hovered around $30,000.

Until mid-June it had suffered a bit, with a decline that began in the second half of April and continued throughout May. But since falling below $25,000 in mid-June, it has rebounded and in less than a week returned above $30,000. 

Since then, which is to say for the past 27 days, it has almost always remained around this figure.

Bitcoin’s yearly highs in USD value

During this period, it has twice updated the 2023 annual highs previously made around mid-April. 

Indeed, the first breach of the year’s high of $30,000 occurred on 11 April, with the high of $31,000 also being breached three days later. On 14 April it made its first annual high above this figure, at $31,050. 

Then, until 23 June, the price of BTC had never again managed to return above $31,000, which is when it made a new 2023 annual high above $31,400. 

This record held until 6 July, when it briefly broke even above $31,500, but it was on 13 July that it registered a new annual high above $31,800. 

At that point it was expected to break through even the $32,000 mark, and instead it was already back just below $30,000 the next day.

However, it seems possible that between now and the end of the year the record of $31,800 may be broken sooner or later. 

The lateralization phase of Bitcoin’s value in USD

What began on 21 June, with the return above $30,000, is for all intents and purposes a lateralization phase, lasting for 27 days so far. 

During this period the price of Bitcoin has never returned below $29,000, not even for a brief moment. The minimum price has been above $29,400, touched for a brief moment on 30 June, and dropped below $30,000 only in eleven days, and has been above $31,000 again in eleven days. 

Thus it can be said that, except for a few days like today, Bitcoin’s market value has remained between $30,000 and $31,000. 

This is a very compressed range indeed, given the standards of BTC’s price, so much so that one would assume that sooner or later it might break through it suddenly and violently upward or downward. 

The summer break

To tell the truth, if we exclude the movements produced mainly on altcoin prices by the ruling in favor of XRP, this month of July turns out on average to be a particularly stingy month of important news for the crypto markets. 

In other words, it is a bit as if the crypto markets are already partly on vacation, perhaps because many of those who drive them are actually on vacation. 

However, it is worth mentioning that several times in the past there have been major movements in August.

For example, last year there was a major rebound in Bitcoin’s market value, which went from $19,000 in mid-July to $25,000 in mid-August. 

In 2021 it even went from $29,000 on July 20 to $52,000 on 6 September, with a climb that lasted throughout August. 

Even the previous year in August there was a rise, which began on 28 July and ended on 5 September. 

It certainly seems that crypto markets in July usually take some sort of hiatus, throughout the first part of the month, and then suddenly awaken between the end of the month and August. 

If this is the case, given that the starting point is the current $30,000, it does not seem impossible to rule out the possibility that it could go even far beyond the $32,000 missed a few days ago. 

The performance of other assets

It is worth noting that the markets for other assets somewhat related to Bitcoin do not seem to have taken a break at all in July.

In particular, it was the Dollar Index that made major movements, as it fell below 100 points for the first time since April 2022, after also being above 104 points in May. 

In July alone it fell from 102.9 to 99.8 points, helping other assets to gain. 

For instance, the price of gold, which also fell below $1,900 an ounce at the end of June, has climbed back up to over $1,960, probably driven precisely by the dollar’s apparent difficulties. 

It is worth mentioning that many had expected the Dollar Index to fall, mainly because of its spectacular rise in 2022 with inflation at its highest in decades. In May 2021, it was as high as 90 points, while by October 2022 it had risen even above 113 points. 

So the current one seems merely a retracement following a kind of mini-bubble that lasted almost a year and a half. 

US stock markets have also benefited from this decline in the dollar. 

Since the beginning of July the Nasdaq has been at +3%, but since 26 June it is almost at +7%. 

S&P 500 has been at +1.6% since the beginning of July, and at +4% since 26 June.

Thus Bitcoin’s lateralization is something of an anomaly, probably due to the peculiarity of crypto markets to lateralize in July and then wake up in August.