According to a recent research by Fidelity Digital Asset, Bitcoin might still be in an acceleration phase, and at the end of this phase experience “a sharp and dramatic rally, similar to the grand finale of a fireworks show”.
Although there do not seem to be many analysts in agreement with this scenario, there are also other forecasts that support that during 2025 the price of BTC could reach new heights.
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Fidelity’s research
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The research by Fidelity Digital Asset is aptly titled “Is Bitcoin Set for Further Price Discovery?“, precisely because it analyzes the potential for further growth in the price of BTC.
It was published by Zack Wainwright, Digital Asset Research Analyst at Fidelity, on March 19, and since then the situation does not seem to have particularly changed for Bitcoin.
Between yesterday and today, in fact, a collapse was expected, which, however, has not yet arrived.
The research starts from the post-election increases at the end of 2024, that is, from when it entered price discovery surpassing the historical highs of March 2024. Wainwright states that only at that point had it entered a phase of true price discovery for the first time since it surpassed $20,000 in December 2020.
Adds:
“Historically, changes of this type have been observed during previous acceleration phases, a period in the Bitcoin price cycle characterized by high volatility and high profits”.
The sharp and dramatic rally of Bitcoin
The Bitcoin rally of November 2024 has initiated a period of price discovery reminiscent of the increases seen during past acceleration phases, such as those in 2013 and 2017.
At the time, these phases of acceleration then in turn triggered a second rally in the second part of the year.
To tell the truth, the trajectory of the current cycle has not yet fully developed in that direction, but historical parallels suggest that Bitcoin still has the potential for a similar bull movement upwards.
Wainwright describes the current phase as a moment of excitement, with investors focused on the daily movements of the BTC price, high volatility, and profits.
However, it also hypothesizes that the end of this phase could be near, and that it could happen in the coming months precisely thanks to a final rally that could bring the price of Bitcoin back into price discovery territory.
The forecast of Fidelity: how long do we have to wait for the next Bitcoin bull rally?
The moment when the new rally might begin should be, according to Wainwright, the one in which the price of BTC manages to surpass $110,000. Until today, it has never succeeded.
The Fidelity analyst, however, also highlights how significant events in the markets could either prematurely end the acceleration phase or extend it longer than expected, while specifying that the current cycle has never yet been uninterrupted.
So, the scenarios are two.
Either the current phase will continue to proceed more or less as it has done so far, eventually triggering a new rally in the coming months, or something significant will have to happen to change the situation.
The fact is that what is happening right now due to the trade war of Donald Trump could indeed change the scenario, both in the short and medium/long term.
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The June hypothesis
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In addition to Wainwright’s forecasts, there are many other predictions suggesting that the second rally could occur in the second half of the year, starting from June onwards.
In 2017, the first year of Donald Trump at the White House, the second bull rally actually began at the end of April and concluded in mid-December.
The current situation is different, but it cannot be ruled out that something similar might happen.
What many analysts think, however, is that in April the price of Bitcoin still has room to fall, while in May it might just limit itself to bouncing back, in case it actually falls in April. Therefore, it might also give the impression of starting again at the end of April, but it might be necessary to wait at least until June before a new true bull rally begins.