In an economic context marked by political uncertainties and massive sales of US assets, two protagonists are emerging strongly: Bitcoin and the euro. While the American stock market records heavy losses, these two assets show a surprising resilience against the US dollar, signaling a possible paradigm shift in global capital flows.
On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 700 points, bringing the monthly decline to over 9%. At the same time, the dollar index – which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of currencies, including the euro – fell to its lowest level in the last three years, reaching 98. This represents a 10% loss over the last three months. Long-term government bonds were also hit, with the yield on the thirty-year rising by over five basis points, reaching 4.90%.
Bitcoin and euro on the rise while Wall Street collapses: the “Sell America” strategy gains traction
These movements suggest that the so-called “Sell America” strategy – that is, the rotation of capital out of U.S. assets – is gaining momentum. Confirming this trend are the data on options linked to Bitcoin (BTC) and the euro-dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate, which show a growing preference for call options, financial instruments that reflect a bull view.
According to data from platforms like Deribit and Amberdata, short-term risk reversals on Bitcoin – which measure the demand for calls versus puts – have returned to positive territory. The same applies to the EUR/USD exchange rate, where the one-month risk reversal has shifted towards a preference for euro calls, as reported by Jens Nordvig, CEO of Exante Data Inc.
Call options offer asymmetric exposure to the upside of the underlying asset, while put options protect against a decline in prices. A preference for call options therefore implies a positive sentiment towards the asset, in this case Bitcoin and the euro, and a growing distrust in the dollar.
Trump, the Fed and political uncertainty
At the base of this capital shift is a key element: political uncertainty in the United States. The tensions related to the trade war initiated by President Donald Trump and his statements about the intention to remove the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, are fueling investors’ fears.
Trump has attributed to the Fed the responsibility for the economic difficulties arising from the trade war, calling for a rate cut and threatening to fire Powell. A gesture that, if realized, would call into question the independence of the central bank, a fundamental element for market confidence.
“We are witnessing a strategic shift in asset allocation that is disrupting many historical correlations. It is time for many investors to pause and rethink their strategies.”,
Nordvig stated on X (formerly Twitter).
Bitcoin over 88,000 dollars: sign of strength
In this scenario of turbulence, Bitcoin has surpassed 88,000 dollars, remaining stable even on Tuesday. The cryptocurrency has gained just over 1% since Sunday, consolidating its position as a safe haven in times of global uncertainty.
According to Gerry O’Shea, head of global market analysis at Hashdex, “today’s increase is further evidence of the growing role of Bitcoin as a risk-off asset.” O’Shea noted that in the past five years Bitcoin has recorded double-digit returns in the months following significant geopolitical and macroeconomic events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the American banking crisis of 2023.
Gold at all-time highs: the return of safe-haven assets
Gold has also benefited from the climate of uncertainty, reaching a new all-time high of 3,495 dollars per ounce. The precious metal, traditionally considered a safe haven asset, is attracting capital along with Bitcoin, which many are once again defining as “digital gold”.
“With gold at its all-time nominal highs, we might witness a strong performance of Bitcoin if investors’ appetite for defensive assets continues to grow. Especially in a context of increasing global liquidity and improving regulatory framework in the United States.”
added O’Shea
Favorable technical indicators for BTC
Even from a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is showing encouraging signals. According to Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at FxPro, BTC has tested the late March highs at 87,500, bouncing off the 50-day moving average, a key indicator for traders.
“A solid close above 88,000 dollars would indicate a break of the bear trend and a possible return above the 200-day moving average. A decisive upward movement from these levels would represent a strong signal for the entire market, reaffirming Bitcoin as a leading asset.”,
explained Kuptsikevich.
The global context strengthens the role of Bitcoin
The strengthening of the yen giapponese, which has gained almost 1% against the dollar reaching 139.93 – the highest level since September – is another sign of the growing demand for safe-haven assets. In Asia, gold has continued its bull run, while Bitcoin has maintained its position.
Other digital assets like Ether (ETH), Cardano (ADA), XRP, and Solana (SOL) have experienced profit-taking, with drops of up to 3%, according to data from CoinGecko. However, mid-cap cryptocurrencies like Kaspa (KAS) and Polygon (POL) have gained up to 9%, despite the absence of obvious catalysts.
A new scenario for global investors
The picture that emerges is clear: investors are reassessing their strategies in a context dominated by political instability, pressures on US markets, and growing attraction to alternative assets. Bitcoin, the euro, and gold are benefiting from this shift, consolidating their role in a diversified portfolio.
With the amministrazione Trump at the center of controversial economic choices and the Federal Reserve under pressure, the future of global financial markets could increasingly be tied to the ability of investors to adapt quickly and seize new opportunities in a constantly evolving world.