Bitcoin forecasting: $100,000 before the halving

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One of the most famous predictions regarding Bitcoin‘s price was that it would reach $100,000 after the last halving, namely that of 2020. 

This prediction, made famous especially by PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow chart, turned out to be wrong, because it was based on the fact that this figure would be reached as early as 2021, which was during the bull run following the 2020 halving. 

However, for some time now there have been those who believe that after the next halving, which will take place around April next year, the $100,000 mark could actually be exceeded, and these are now joined by some who believe that a similar scenario could occur even before April 2024. 

The new forecasting for Bitcoin

This particularly bullish prediction was made by Adam Back, namely the co-founder and CEO of Blockstream

Blockstream is probably the single most important company in the world among those working on Bitcoin. 

It is a company that works on developing software based on the Bitcoin protocol, and to date has raised $210 million in investment. It was one of the first to work on Lightning Network, and also one of the first to release LN-based software. 

Back is very famous in the crypto environment, and is no stranger to bullish stances on BTC. 

He recently bet one million Satoshi, equal to one hundredth of a Bitcoin, on Bitcoin’s price reaching or exceeding $100,000 by March 31, 2024. 

One million Satoshi is small, because at the current exchange rate it is only equivalent to about $290, but the important thing is that it is a public bet. 

The fact that Back is betting $290 is not at all important, what is important is that he has publicly stated that he believes it is possible that before even the next halving the price of Bitcoin could reach that very important psychological threshold. 

It is worth noting that the amount of the bet was proposed by the other betmaker, X user Vikingo, according to whom the price of BTC will instead remain below $100,000 until at least 31 March 2024. 

The next bull run on Bitcoin

For such an event to occur, a powerful new bull run must be triggered. 

In the past, following the first halving in 2012, a giant speculative bubble inflated, taking the price of Bitcoin from $10 to over $1,100, only to then burst causing it to fall back to around $150. 

Even after the second halving, the one in 2016, a speculative bubble inflated, taking it from about $1,000 to nearly $20,000, eventually bursting causing it to fall back to $3,000. 

After the third halving, the one in 2020, the bubble was more subdued, going from $20,000 to $69,000, and then returning to $15,000. 

In other words, the all-time highs made by Bitcoin’s price during the post-halving bull runs were never breached before the next halving. So if what Back is imagining happens it would be a first. 

In order to get to $100,000 from current levels, the price of BTC would have to rise more than three times, and reach +44% from the highs of late 2021. This is therefore a very bullish assumption, and perhaps even overly optimistic. 

Bitcoin’s price commentary from eToro

According to eToro market analyst Simon Peters, the crypto market is paying close attention to developments regarding BlackRock’s application to be able to issue an ETF on spot Bitcoin in the US market. 

Indeed, in theory it is possible that any SEC approval in this regard could come before March 2024, so there could be a motivation behind Back’s assumption. 

However, it is by no means certain that the SEC will approve this application, partly because it has so far always rejected any such initiative. 

However, BlackRock has an approval rate of more than 99% for its ETF applications, so in theory it is favored. 

The assumption is that if an ETF like this were to be particularly successful in the traditional markets, it would end up draining many of the BTC currently on the market, effectively decreasing their supply. 

Currently, according to Peters, the crypto market lacks a spark to follow up on June’s positive movements.

Therefore, the situation in the short term does not seem particularly interesting, while in the medium/long term the outlook could be different. 

However, a lot will also depend on the economic situation in the US, since in the event of a recession the traditional financial markets could react particularly badly.