Since the beginning of September, the price of Bitcoin has started to broadly follow that of gold.
Obviously, these are two very different trends due to the strong difference in volatility, but in the medium term, they turn out to be similar.
Behind this similarity, there might be a common cause.
The Growth of Gold
The growth of the gold price is impressive.
It’s enough to say that starting from March of this year, it broke upwards through an already ascending channel that had lasted for a full 24 years, that is, since it was worth less than $300 an ounce at the end of 2001.
To be honest, the growth had already started in January, but it was only in March that the multi-decade ascending channel was broken to the upside.
It should also be added that from May to July the growth seemed to have stalled, but in August it resumed with a remarkable September and October from this point of view.
At the end of December 2024, the price had risen to $2,600 per ounce, while in March, when it broke upward through the multi-decade ascending channel, it closed the month above $3,100. When in May the growth seemed to have stalled, the peak was around $3,500 per ounce.
In September, $3,800 was surpassed, and in October, $3,900, so now the $4,000 mark seems to be near. This would represent a doubling in less than two years, considering the last time the price of gold was below $2,000 per ounce was in February 2024.
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The Growth of Bitcoin
The price of Bitcoin had risen significantly between July and August, reaching new all-time highs above $124,000.
In the second half of August, it then marked a correction, just as the price of gold continued to rise. However, in the first half of September, the two trends aligned, albeit with different proportions.
At the end of September, while gold continued to rise, Bitcoin experienced another correction, though shorter and smaller than that of August, and in October it started to rise again with a trend aligned with that of gold.
Therefore, net of volatility, it has been more than three months that the price of BTC has been following that of gold, albeit with greater volatility, less consistency, and different proportions.
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The Common Cause Bitcoin-Gold
This apparent alignment might indeed have a common cause.
In fact, starting from January, which is when the great bull run of gold currently ongoing began, there was a strong and steady rise in the money supply M2 globally.
Measuring the value of this money supply in dollars, despite being largely composed of currencies other than USD, at the end of 2024 it was approximately 105 trillion, while now it has exceeded 115.
This is an increase of almost 10% in less than twelve months, which is a very significant percentage considering it involves the entire M2 money supply of the world.
Note, for example, that it took just under two years to rise from 96 trillion to 106 trillion, between 2022 and 2024.
The growth of the global M2 in 2025 seems to go quite hand in hand with the growth of the price of gold, despite the slowdown of the latter between May and July, which was then offset by a remarkable rebound in the last month.
It turns out to be slightly different compared to the growth of Bitcoin, but with a similar trend in the medium term, and different only in the short or at most medium-short term, probably precisely due to the greater volatility of BTC’s price.
Gold Purchases
In reality, the increase in the gold price is mainly driven by the increase in buying pressure.
At this moment, the major buyers are central banks, which have been increasing their gold reserves for ten years now.
Consider that in 2015 gold constituted only less than 6% of the total reserves of central banks worldwide, while this percentage rose above 9% in 2020, and by the end of 2024 it approached 13%.
According to Reuters, in September 2025 they had even risen above 25%, surpassing even those in U.S. Treasuries.
Additionally, gold is also purchased as a form of protection against potential global crises, given that in this particular historical context, such risk seems to have significantly increased.
Bitcoin Purchases
Instead, what has driven the price of Bitcoin recently has been the reduction of selling pressure on exchanges crypto.
To be honest, the reduction of BTC available on exchanges for sale is most likely due to the strong purchases by ETFs, which are traded on traditional stock exchanges and do not directly contribute to Bitcoin’s price variations.
These indeed are revealed only on the exchanges, even though indirectly the BTC purchases by ETFs often end up reducing the selling pressure on the same exchanges.
In recent days, however, this dynamic seems to have momentarily stopped, but buying pressure on the exchanges has started to rise, and that’s why the price has increased.