The hypothesis that the fateful $100k of Bitcoin could be reached by the end of November is starting to circulate insistently.
Until before the US presidential elections, the hypothesis circulating was that of a rise to $90,000 in case of Trump’s victory, and this happened within a week. However, now Bitcoin could also continue to rise.
Bitcoin Analysis: $100k by the end of November?
To tell the truth, the scenario that was imagined before the elections was that the price of Bitcoin could rise to $90,000 very quickly.
This happened only in part, because in the two days following the Trump victory the price rose “only” to $76,000, with a +12% that is not at all sensational.
In the past, there have indeed been rises even much more rapid, with perhaps +15% in a single day, but this year there are ETFs listed on the USA stock exchanges, and this could slightly reduce the traditionally high volatility of the BTC price.
In fact, on the third day after Trump’s victory, the growth of Bitcoin seemed to have stalled, perhaps also because the bull and bear markets were closed for the weekend. However, by Sunday the 10th, it had already reached $80,000 with another +5%.
The $90,000 were approached “only” two days later, with an additional +11%, so much so that in the end, even though this is the result of Trump’s victory, it does not seem that this was the only reason for the rise.
To such an extent, it is not absurd to imagine that the rise could continue in the coming days, also because in the meantime yesterday even the 93,000$ mark was surpassed.
The timing
In other terms, if the so-called “Trump Trade” has indeed run out above $90,000, as was believed before his victory, then something much more would be needed to continue the rise of Bitcoin.
Instead, if in the case of the Trump Trade in these days some other bull dynamic had been added, then the rise could also continue. If so, the $100,000 now seems quite within reach.
Regarding the timing, there are two dates to keep an eye on.
The first is that of Monday, November 18, because the current bull phase could exhaust itself starting from that date.
This means that if the 100k do not arrive this week, or over the weekend, it might be difficult for them to arrive next week. Therefore, there is also the possibility that everything could be postponed to December.
The second date is around Sunday, December first, when in theory another short bull phase like the current one could begin.
This is why the 100k could still arrive by the end of the year, even if they do not arrive in November.
The dollar
In fact, there is a second dynamic at play, which for now seems to have no short-term effects on Bitcoin.
It concerns the rise of the US dollar.
The Dollar Index today recorded new annual highs for 2024 above 106.6 points, and its run might still not be over.
For example, in 2016, after Trump’s first election, the Dollar Index rose from 97 to 101 points until November 24, and then after a brief decline, it continued to rise to an annual peak of 103 points at the end of December.
The hypothesis is that the current rise of the Dollar Index might not be concluded yet, and that it could manage to climb above 107 points, precisely by the end of November. Furthermore, the hypothesis is that it is unlikely to start falling in the first half of December.
At the beginning of 2017, the Dollar Index then began a long descent that within a year brought it below 90 points, favoring the great bullrun of Bitcoin.
This suggests that, even if the 100k mark is surpassed by the end of the year, the bull run of BTC could continue into 2025.
The forecast of Bitcoin price at $100k by November
The chief analyst of Bitget Research, Ryan Lee, points out that historically November is the best month for Bitcoin returns, and therefore BTC could be on track to reach $100,000 by the end of the month.
In fact, Lee goes so far as to predict that the price of Bitcoin could go well beyond the target of 100k by the end of the month, also due to the trend of the post-halving cycle.
Such a forecast is indeed shared by the analysts at Bitfinex, who believe that Trump’s victory will stimulate the adoption of cryptocurrencies in the USA, pushing BTC above $100,000 within a few months.
However, the analysts at Bitfinex also predict a limited decline in the short term, and after a period of fluctuation and accumulation, it will reach and surpass 100K afterward.
The upper level of $110k
To all this, it should be added that, if 100k is the psychological reference threshold at this moment, in reality, there is a second threshold of attention set at $110,000.
In fact, this is the figure at which the maximum of the last cycle (the one at the end of 2021) should have been recorded if things had gone as in the past.
In 2021, in fact, between April and May, Chinese capital was lacking due to the ban, and it did not return in time for the second part of the bullrun. The peak stopped at $69,000, while it most likely could have gone further. If it had followed the pattern of the two previous major bullruns, it should have stopped around $110,000.
In the past, between the end of the US presidential election year and the beginning of the following year, the price of Bitcoin has always managed to approach or surpass the highs of the previous cycle, and this makes it possible to imagine also the approach or surpassing of $110,000 from here until January.