BTC/USD Chart, Coinbase market. Source: TradingView
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How does the macroeconomic and geopolitical context affect?
The comparison between the breakout of 2024 and the current situation is not identical. The trendline today is ascending and the market is affected by headwinds: US trade tariffs and general geopolitical uncertainties are reducing the appetite for riskier assets like Bitcoin.
Nonetheless, the dominant consensus among operators remains that a directional breakout is imminent, given that the last few weeks have seen a historical compression of volatility.
Can Bitcoin volatility explode soon?
Statistically, periods of low volatility have often preceded strong price movements. In 2024, the consolidation phase between $70,000 and $73,800 was abruptly interrupted with a rally of extension beyond the expectations of many analysts.
Today the focus is on exiting the current phase: a confirmed support could trigger a return to “price discovery” and attempts at new all-time highs, while a loss of the ascending trendline would increase the risks of slipping below the January highs. Currently, the most likely scenario for many remains that of a rally:
“L’ultima volta che sembrava così era prima della corsa da $70k a $100k”,
wrote Galaxy to its followers.
What scenarios open up for traders and investors?
If the structure is respected, one might expect a target in the $108,000 – $112,000 area, partially replicating the bull run of 2024, but with increasing risks due to the macro framework.
The opportunities to achieve superior returns multiply in scenarios like this: recent history teaches that the speed of movements can surprise, and Bitcoin in the “retest” phase tends to move explosively after confirming its hold.
What to monitor in the coming weeks?
The key levels to follow are:
- $112,000: crucial support area of the current market phase
- $109,300: January high, hypothesized as a turning point
- Ascending trendline: loss or break could radically change the direction
- $108,000: historical high to use as the first target if the bull run resumes
Always keep an eye on macro news – such as the new US tariffs or inflation data – and the possible short-term reactions on the cryptocurrency markets. Compressed volatility can easily degenerate into strong spikes.
Impact and prospects: the future of Bitcoin is being decided now
The test of the dynamic support will set a precedent: a bullish breakout driven by the same logic of the bull market 2024 would have enormous impacts on confidence and capital inflows, in the midst of the spot ETF season and with Trump as president. However, the fragility of the macro context and the absence of explicit signals increase the risks for those who expose themselves too early.
The future of Bitcoin now depends on the response to the technical levels monitored worldwide. A new journey into uncharted territories? Or a prolonged pause before a trend change?
