According to the predictions of SkyBridge Capital founder, Anthony Scaramucci, the market capitalization of Bitcoin in the coming years could be worth half of that of gold.
By doing the calculations, since currently the market capitalization of gold is about 14.5 trillion dollars, Bitcoin should reach over 7 trillion, which is almost ten times more than the current 843 billion.
In this case, the price of a single BTC would be around $400,000.
Bitcoin and gold: Anthony Scaramucci’s long-term predictions
Although Bitcoin and gold are not actually comparable things, since gold is also a physical commodity, in financial markets they are sometimes compared as investment types.
However, it should be specified that Bitcoin is a risk-on asset, while gold is the main risk-off asset in the markets.
Moreover, Scaramucci himself in January 2021 stated on CNN Business that Bitcoin had become a good long-term investment, and although price fluctuations would not disappear completely, he claimed to believe that Bitcoin was a long-term value proposition that should only grow over time.
And instead the following year the price collapsed to below $16,000, while at the time of his statements to CNN Business it was worth more than double. In fact, in March 2021, when he made his statement to CNBC, it was worth almost $60,000.
However, during 2023 it rose above $40,000, so maybe Scaramucci was only wrong in underestimating the presence of strong volatility.
Volatility is precisely one of the main differences in the financial markets between gold and Bitcoin, with gold stopping at +53% in the last 5 years, while BTC recorded a staggering +1,100%.
The new hypothesis of the founder of SkyBridge is that with the upcoming April halving on the horizon, optimism abounds that the price of Bitcoin could reach new highs.
His prediction is that it will reach at least $170,000 in the 18 months following the halving, based on the historical price trends in previous cycles, with BTC tending to quadruple in such a timeframe after the halving.
In reality, during the last halving in May 2020, the price was around $10,000, and during the subsequent bull run, it reached nearly $70,000. However, the current value is approximately 4 times that of the last halving.
Actually, according to him, it would be a prudent estimate to imagine a Bitcoin price of $50,000 at the time of the April halving, and this would imply a price of $200,000 18 months later, i.e. by the end of 2025.
These, it must be said, are figures quite in line with other forecasts, such as those of Blockstream CEO Adam Back and Standard Chartered Bank, which see a price rise above $100,000 in 2025.
According to Scaramucci, in the long term, the market capitalization of Bitcoin will tend to be worth about half of that of gold, which is a price well above $300,000.
The other forecasts
However, not all analysts agree with these predictions.
For example, from here until the April halving, many believe that there will be a retracement, either with a return below $40,000, or with a descent towards $35,000, or even with a crash down to $32,000.
It should be noted that in October, when the last small bull run began, the price was around $28,000, so these predictions do not seem at all risky.
However, perhaps it is precisely after the halving that a sort of sell the news could be unleashed, although the halving is a certain event of which only the exact day is not known, while at this moment it seems a bit difficult for a strong drop to occur before the event itself.
On the other hand, the halving seems to have already been priced in by the markets, precisely because it is an absolutely certain and predictable event.
Moreover, there are also other analysts who agree with Scaramucci in considering a return close to $50,000 before the halving possible. For example, on the day of the launch of the new ETFs, January 11th, the price reached $49,000 for a brief moment before returning to figures more in line with those of the last two months.
Scaramucci has always been very bullish on Bitcoin, as well as other analysts or investors who believe that a new major bull run could be triggered after the halving, maybe at the end of the year as happened in the last cycle.
The next halving will take place at the beginning of 2028, and it could also be the last time that a similar event generates a consequent major bull run.