In the United States, the CLARITY Act is approaching a decisive step, while JPMorgan signals progress in the negotiations and fewer unresolved issues than in past months.
JPMorgan sees a deal getting closer
According to a report by JPMorgan, the push to create a formal legal framework for cryptocurrencies in the United States is now in its final phase. Analysts state that negotiations on the bill are nearing a turning point, thanks to the resolution of several disputes over stablecoins and supervisory powers.
Originally, there were about 12 sticking points. Now only 2 or 3 remain. Moreover, this reduction in the number of outstanding issues is interpreted by the bank as a concrete sign of progress in the bill’s path through the Senate.
What the CLARITY Act provides for the digital asset market
The CLARITY Act aims to become the first broad regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. The goal is to clarify which federal authorities oversee the different segments of the sector, reducing the uncertainty that has held the industry back in recent years.
The text seeks to clearly define where the authority of the SEC ends and where that of the CFTC begins. It also addresses the role of DeFi platforms and stablecoins within the broader financial system.
The issue of rewards on stablecoins
One of the main points of contention concerns the possibility for stablecoin issuers to offer interest-like yields to holders. Banks have opposed this, arguing that such a model could create risks without adequate oversight.
However, according to JPMorgan, the most recent proposals on stablecoin rewards are “in a good place.” Senator Thom Tillis is expected to publish a draft on this topic during the current week.
The bank believes that the latest proposal on stablecoin yields could gain support from both crypto companies and traditional banks. That said, such an agreement would mark an important step after months of deadlock.
Tight timeline and political risk before the 2026 elections
The timing, however, remains an issue. At the moment, the bill does not appear on the Senate Banking Committee’s schedule for the week of April 20. There is still a chance it could be added, but no formal date has been set for a vote.
If the vote is not scheduled before the May 21 recess, the process could face further delays. In addition, this would push the timeline closer to the November 2026 midterm elections, increasing political uncertainty.
JPMorgan points to the midterms themselves as a risk. If the Democrats were to regain control of the House of Representatives, cryptocurrency legislation could lose priority. A political consultant cited in the report noted that a perfect law does not exist, implying that compromises will be necessary.
Polymarket raises the odds of approval
Meanwhile, the prediction market is sending an encouraging signal. Polymarket estimates at 65% the probability that the bill will be approved in 2026, up from 54% at the beginning of the week.
Furthermore, the final text has not yet been made public. Overall, the dossier appears closer to a compromise than in previous stages, but the next parliamentary steps will be decisive in turning the political agreement into an operational law.