There are various hypotheses circulating that imagine a crash in the price of Bitcoin today or in the coming days.
In fact, in recent days it has fallen, probably due to a trend reversal, but these are still almost irrelevant movements in the medium/short term.
A negative signal for the price of Bitcoin
In particular, yesterday the charts showed a clear negative signal for the price of Bitcoin.
During the weekend, with traditional markets closed, the daily RSI index of BTC price had risen above the fabled 70 points, entering the overbought zone, even if only for a short time.
The climb towards the 70 mark began on Monday, October 14, after it had remained in the neutral zone around 50 points for two weeks.
Already on Tuesday the 15th, it had surpassed 65 points, and on Wednesday it had even reached above 67.
On Friday it had exceeded 69 points and on Sunday it also exceeded 70.
At that point, that is yesterday, a trend reversal occurred, with a sudden return to 61 points.
The possible crash of today’s Bitcoin price
Although this return to 61 points of the daily RSI index of the Bitcoin price was such as to lead to the belief that the excess of the previous days has now been completely exhausted, it should not be forgotten that just a little over ten days ago it was below 45 points.
This means that in theory the decline could continue.
However, a decrease in the daily RSI index does not necessarily mean a decrease in the price will follow.
One must not forget that both the change in buying pressure and the change in selling pressure matter, and according to the data of BTC present on the exchanges, the selling pressure in these days should be decreasing.
Therefore, it is possible that the price of BTC does not drop significantly from the current level even if the RSI index were to drop further, as long as the latter does not collapse.
This makes it possible, but not probable, a collapse today.
The discussion changes, however, if instead of considering an actual collapse, one considers a possible further decline.
The decline in the price of Bitcoin
As a starting point for examining the risks of further declines, it is useful to consider the 58,800$ reached for a brief moment on October 10.
Since then, in just 11 days, the price of Bitcoin has risen above $69,000, with a rise that many analysts consider excessively fast.
At this moment, there is probably a sort of race among speculators to be the first to enter in advance of the potential increase related to the presidential elections in the USA, especially in the event of a victory by Donald Trump.
Generally, in the past, the moment when the election-related rally started was around October 20, or shortly before, while this year it seems to have started shortly after the 10th.
In short, there might have been a small excess of anticipation, highlighted by the rapid rise from less than $59,000 to more than $69,000.
Observing the past few days, the most stable level seems to be $67,000, and in fact yesterday the price fell below this level but then quickly moved back above it.
This suggests that, in the absence of unforeseen events, BTC could remain at the current levels without dropping further, awaiting the US elections. In other words, yesterday’s correction might already be over.
There are, however, also several analysts who envision a possible further drop even below $65,000, but these are always movements of little significance in the medium/short term.
The other threshold of attention should be 63,000$.
Bull run around the corner after today’s Bitcoin price crash?
In order for a true new bull run to begin, as already happened with the US presidential elections of 2012, 2016, and 2020, the price of Bitcoin needs to return significantly above $69,000 on a stable basis.
Yesterday it tried, but that attempt failed, moreover very quickly.
This means that it is not yet time for the start of a bullrun, perhaps precisely due to the small excess of anticipation mentioned above.
In particular, from this point of view, the threshold of attention is $72,000, which is the level that has constituted for months the ceiling beyond which there was no way to go.
A potential strong, clear, and significant breakthrough of this resistance could completely change the scenario.
It should not be forgotten, however, that all this is not even remotely sufficient to predict with certainty that there will be a new bull run.
The Dollar Index
In particular, yesterday the real problem for the price of Bitcoin was the Dollar Index.
At the end of September, this index was sailing around the 100 mark, while between yesterday and today it has risen even above 104 points.
It may seem like a small climb, but for an index like this, 4 points gained in three weeks are actually a lot. Just consider that the maximum of 2024 was around 106 points.
The hypothesis circulating is that before the elections it could rise to 104.5 points, but then start to fall. It could be the drop in the Dollar Index after the US elections that creates the conditions for a new bull run of Bitcoin.
So on one side there are the speculators who are competing to try to anticipate the bullrun but without entering too early, while on the other side there is the Dollar Index that could continue to rise for a few more days.
In such a situation, it is really difficult to make short-term forecasts, while it is easier to predict that the Dollar Index may start to decline after the elections.