The prezzo di Bitcoin is going through one of the most interesting technical phases of recent months. After a long consolidation above $110,000, the digital asset is now at a critical equilibrium point. The combined analysis of the daily and 4H charts, supported by key indicators such as RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands, suggests that the market is accumulating energy for a directional movement of great magnitude.
This setup is not only about the short term: the underlying bull structure remains intact and could pave the way towards historical targets in the area of 135,000$ and 150,000$.
Analysis of the Bitcoin Chart: Primary Trend Still Dominant on the Daily
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin maintains a strongly bullish setup. The exponential moving averages EMA 50 and EMA 200, at 118,188$ and 117,192$ respectively, are well below the current price, confirming that the primary trend is firmly in the hands of the buyers.
The Bande di Bollinger show BTC at the top of the channel, a signal of strength. The RSI oscillates between 66 and 68, a zone of positive momentum that has not yet reached overbought levels, leaving room for further bull movements.
The MACD daily remains in a bull configuration, with the main line above the signal and increasing green histograms, a pattern that historically anticipates price accelerations.
Technical note: The absence of bearish divergences on the RSI and the distance between EMA 50 and 200 suggest that, even in the case of a retracement, the bullish structure would not be compromised unless there is a drop below $110,000.
Key Daily Levels
- Main resistance: $120,000
- Bull targets: 135,000$ – 150,000$
- Supports: $110,000 – $108,000
Analysis of the 4H chart: compression before the storm
The 4-hour timeframe shows a complementary picture to the daily. For weeks, Bitcoin has been oscillating between $116,000 and $120,000, creating a consolidation range that has progressively compressed the Bollinger Bands. This pattern is often the prelude to an explosion of volatility.
The EMA 50 and 200 act as dynamic supports, while the RSI in the 66 area and the MACD in a bullish crossover phase strengthen the possibility of an upward breakout. Historically, these configurations precede rapid breakouts, capable of triggering movements of several percentage points in a few hours.
Attention levels: The closing above $120,000 could open a fast rally towards $123,500 and $126,000. A bear break below $116,000 would instead lead to testing $112,000.
Key levels 4H
- Primary resistance: $120,000
- Bull targets: $123,500 – $126,000
- Supports: $116,000 – $112,000
The macro context and the strength of the structure
Beyond the technical indicators, it is essential to consider the broader context. Bitcoin is benefiting from a steady influx of institutional capital and a growing narrative as a safe haven against inflation. Stability above $110,000 in recent weeks suggests a phase of accumulation rather than distribution, an element that strengthens the thesis of a bull breakout.
The analysis of volumes confirms the picture: despite the apparent sideways movement, the strong hands are building positions. This is visible in the compression of ranges and the holding of key supports.
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Alternative scenarios and risk management
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No technical analysis is complete without considering possible contrary scenarios. A daily close below $110,000 would invalidate part of the short-term bull scenario and could open up a retracement towards $104,000 – $102,000.
However, the macro structure would remain intact until a drop below $98,000, a level that currently appears distant and difficult to reach without an exogenous shock.
Alternative scenario: A correction towards $112,000 or even $108,000 could fall within a physiological phase of “buy the dip” in an underlying trend that is still bull.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is in an extremely interesting technical configuration. The combination of the strength of the daily chart and the compression of the 4H creates one of the most powerful setups of recent months. Above $120,000, the path towards $135,000 and $150,000 would open with high probability, while the supports in the $110,000 – $116,000 area remain the crucial levels to monitor for the maintenance of the bull structure.
This phase represents not only a technical moment but also a psychological one: the market is deciding whether to transform the consolidation into a new parabolic leg of the bull market.