During the first months of 2025, the trend of the gold price has actually outperformed that of Bitcoin.
Gold started the year at about $2,650 per ounce, and it has now surpassed $3,300, with peaks at $3,500.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, started the year at about $93,000, and now it is at about $106,000.
Therefore, in just under five months, the price of gold has appreciated by nearly 24%, while Bitcoin has stopped at +13%.
It should be noted that, moreover, generally the price volatility of gold is about a quarter compared to that of Bitcoin, so a +24% in the price of gold can be compared almost to a +100% in the price of BTC. This makes the performance of gold in five months even more extraordinary.
The trend reversal: Bitcoin could surpass gold
According to the analyst from JPMorgan Chase, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, during the second half of the year the trend could be the opposite.
In other words, according to Panigirtzoglou, Bitcoin could outperform gold in the remaining months of 2025.
The analysts at JPMorgan have highlighted some factors that could end up benefiting the price of BTC.
The first factor is the growing adoption of Bitcoin by companies as a store of value.
The second are the US States (such as Arizona and New Hampshire) that enact laws to create strategic reserves of Bitcoin.
According to the analysts at JPMorgan, the increase in companies and states adding BTC to their reserves could turn into a more lasting positive catalyst for Bitcoin.
In particular, both gold and Bitcoin could serve as a hedge against potential declines in the stock markets, but especially against the devaluation of the US dollar.
However, according to analysts at JPMorgan, gold is a more prudent option, while being positioned to offer some protection against further geopolitical risks and against the weakness of the dollar. However, they also add that they are skeptical about whether Bitcoin truly offers the potential to enhance the resilience of one’s portfolio, despite its low correlation with traditional assets.
The fears for the gold price rally
The remarkable and unusual increase in the price of gold in recent months is indeed a precautionary move against a possible negative development of the economic/financial framework of the USA, and globally.
In fact, it is expected that the dazi di Trump will end up causing inflation to rise and slowing economic growth, while the tax and spending bill will end up adding another 3 trillion dollars to the federal debt over the next decade.
For these reasons, various investors hesitate to purchase U.S. stocks or bonds, resulting in a decrease in demand for U.S. currency.
The hypothesis that is being put forward, however, is that, in addition to gold, investors worried about this scenario might also seek to protect themselves from possible declines in the stock markets, and especially from the devaluation of the dollar, by holding Bitcoin in addition to gold.
It should still be remembered that gold is a risk-off asset, meaning very low risk, while Bitcoin is risk-on, meaning high risk. On the other hand, the difference in average performance also reflects this difference, even though in the first five months of 2025 an anomaly occurred where gold yielded more than Bitcoin.
The role of ETFs
The gold traded on the stock exchange is in the vast majority of cases exchanged in the form of ETF.
Starting from January of last year, on the US exchanges, spot Bitcoin ETFs have also been tradable, so at least from this point of view, comparisons can be made.
Obviously, as far as prices are concerned, ETFs do nothing but replicate the spot ones.
Comparisons can be made on market capitalization and on volumes.
The largest gold ETF by market capitalization is SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).
It has an AUM that approaches 100 billion dollars, and on the New York Stock Exchange, it almost always trades more than 2 billion dollars a day, with recent peaks even above 10 billion.
Instead, the largest Bitcoin ETF in the world by market capitalization is IBIT di BlackRock (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF).
It has an AUM that exceeds 70 billion dollars, and on the Nasdaq it often trades more than 3 billion dollars, with recent peaks of nearly 7 billion.
It is immediately noticeable that the orders of magnitude are the same, even though GLD exceeds IBIT by about 30%.
However, it should not be forgotten that GLD has existed for twenty years, while IBIT for less than a year and a half.
All this reveals that, considered solely for their role in financial markets, Bitcoin and gold are increasingly similar.