No bull market for the price of Bitcoin?

Today the price of Bitcoin briefly returned above $65,000, but according to several analysts there are no signs indicating the beginning of a new bull market in the short term. 

Last week it had dropped below $57,000 for a brief moment, only to rise back above $58,000 in less than 24 hours, and above $60,000 in less than 48. 

On Friday, the price of Bitcoin had managed to rise above $63,000, and the following day above $64,000. 

However, this +13% in a few days does not seem to be enough at all to suggest a return of the bull market.

The period of consolidation

After reaching an all-time high on March 14th at $73,800, the price of Bitcoin went through three subsequent drops. 

To be honest, after the first drop to $61,000 in the second half of March, BTC had managed to rise back above $70,000, but only until the second drop, which occurred in mid-April. Since then, it has not been able to rise above $70,000 again, and in fact has struggled to rise above $67,000.

The third drop, which occurred several days after the halving on April 20, seems to have ended on May 1 just below $57,000, but the return to $65,000 does not seem sufficient to affirm that the post-halving retracement is over. 

However, below $59,000 there seems to be a strong resistance platform that extends up to $57,000, so much so that there are several analysts who believe that the price of Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below these values, if not for a very short time.

So in case this platform holds, it is possible that on March 15th a long period of sideways movement has been triggered that could last for many more weeks. 

Bitcoin Price: Bitget’s analysis on the possibility of a bull market?

According to analyst Ryan Lee of Bitget, it is likely that the price of Bitcoin will fluctuate between $58,000 and $72,000 for another one or two months.

It is worth noting that before jumping for the first time in its history above $70,000 in March 2024, the price of Bitcoin had traded sideways for a few weeks just above $50,000 in February.

In fact, some analysts expect a possible return to a range between $50,000 and $53,000, but to do so, the platform formed in the last two months below $59,000 would need to be broken.

Lee also points out that the implied volatility of BTC and ETH has significantly decreased in the last month, indicating that traders do not expect a significant increase in volatility in the short term market. 

Even the outflows that occurred in the last two weeks on Bitcoin ETFs indicate a situation that does not seem to be ready for the start of a new bull run, as they clearly indicate short-term profit-taking.

However, at least GBTC has recorded its first net inflow since becoming an ETF, so it is not surprising that short-term selling pressure on the market has temporarily eased.

For Lee, it is also quite clear that there is support for the price of Bitcoin at lower levels than the current one.

The situation on the markets

Lee also points out that the Fed’s Net Liquidity Index has started to decrease, and that the growth of stablecoin market capitalization overall has slowed down. 

These data confirm the correction of the crypto market in the last month, but there are other data suggesting that the situation could change in the medium term.

According to Lee, the Fed is already considering a path of interest rate cuts, judging by the results of the rate meeting where the downward trend in inflation, the increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5%, and the risks related to liquidity were discussed. 

Currently the market seems to consider only one interest rate cut by the Fed this year, but the crypto market could also anticipate in advance a possible early and broader interest rate cut starting from September or November of this year. 

In light of this, Lee argues that the next peak of the Bitcoin bull market will be around September.

The main sectors that could undergo significant changes are the BTC ecosystem (new protocols and assets like Rune, ARC20, BTC layer 2), memecoins, and the AI sector.

The trend for the price of Bitcoin in the coming months: bull-market on the way?

So, basically, it seems unlikely that the price of Bitcoin can reach new highs in May, and perhaps even in June, but it could also manage to stay within a range above $57,000 or $58,000.

This also implies that from the $65,000 touched today, a new price drop of perhaps more than 10% could be triggered, with the possibility of going even further, although it appears unlikely. 

However, the scenario changes as we move away from May and approach September, with a return of the possibilities of reaching new highs.