On Monday, the price of Nvidia shares on the stock market had dropped to $95. Yesterday, however, it rose above $100, and today in pre-market it has also risen above $103.
Is it just a temporary bounce, or is it a true bull market recovery?
The rebound of NVIDIA ($NVDA) stock price
It is necessary to be very cautious, because a first rebound, then failed, had already occurred.
In fact, on April 7, it had reached a relative minimum peak at $86, after a decline that had already started on January 27 and began from above the $140 mark.
After the relative low peak at the beginning of April, the stock NVDA had already recorded an initial rebound.
Only two days later it had already risen again to $115, but that rebound lasted very little. On April 16th there was a new crash that produced a second relative minimum peak, but higher than that at the beginning of the month.
In fact, two consecutive rising low peaks ($86 and $95) should be interpreted as a possible positive signal, but on the other hand, the first rebound has already failed.
Unlike that first rebound, the latest one seems decidedly less volatile, given that the previous one recorded a +11% in a single day, while today’s one for now stops at less than +2%.
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The historical trend up to today
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The true bullrun of Nvidia’s stock price actually started back in January two years ago, and although it had some ups and downs, it continued until November 2024.
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Since then, things have changed.
First of all, until after mid-February 2025, the bullrun was followed by a period of lateralization with high volatility, with the price oscillating for three months between $110 and $150 with rare, brief, and small exceptions.
The phase of lateralization was then replaced by a descending trend that began at the end of February.
This downward trend, which brought the price down to the relative low peak of $86 on April 7, might not be concluded, even though the rising lows of recent weeks suggest otherwise.
Note that the current price level is in line with the lows of August 2024, when it briefly dropped to $90 before quickly rising again. Even at that time, it marked two rising lows ($90 and $100), but a month apart from each other.
All this makes it more likely that the bear trend has ended, rather than the opposite, but it is probably necessary to wait for some further confirmation.
Why Nvidia stocks are rising
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In reality, on Monday the price of Nvidia shares had fallen, when Donald Trump hinted that he wanted to fire the president of the Fed.
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But since then, two important things have happened that have changed the sentiment.
The first is precisely the explicit declaration by Trump that he does not want to fire Powell.
The second consists of two distinct statements that both suggest progress in the talks between the USA and China to reduce tariffs.
In fact, even the S&P500 index is slightly recovering.
The relative minimum peak was recorded on April 7, and it is now at +9% from that peak.
However, it should not be forgotten that Nvidia has published a report revealing that the launch of one of its upcoming chips could be delayed due to some defects. This news has actually already been priced in, but if it were to be followed by other news of this nature, it could undermine the ongoing attempt to rebound.
Note that some major investment firms have reduced the one-year price target for Nvidia shares, but keeping it above $150, which is 40% more than the current levels.
The hypothesis is that the impact of the tariffs has already been priced in, and that the company will still record an excellent earnings per share in this fiscal year.