While waiting for the results of the US presidential elections, crypto traders are heavily betting on Bitcoin options, significantly increasing the open interest of the contracts. At the moment, the “notional volume”, or the sum of open call and put contracts, amounts to approximately 363 million dollars.
The bets on the Deribit derivatives market indicate a possible rally to $80,000 right after the elections, if Trump is elected President.
On the contrary, in case of a victory by Kamala Harris and the democrats, the options highlight an area of interest around 45,000 dollars.
Let’s see all the details below.
The US presidential elections and the impact on the crypto market
Bitcoin options are gathering a high open interest for contracts expiring on November 8, 2024, just 3 days after the much-anticipated US presidential elections.
Undoubtedly, the result of this great event will determine the direction of the crypto markets in the short term with a probable strong impact on prices.
Trump fully supports the crypto movement and has repeatedly proclaimed himself a fan of Bitcoin to the point of declaring that he wants to include it as an asset di riserva for the U.S. Treasury.
On the other hand, Harris, successor to Joe Biden, is against the technological innovation of blockchain and crypto and wants to introduce strict regulations to limit their expansion.
Obviously, these can only be behaviors that are intended and sought solely for the purposes of their respective election campaigns.
Most likely, neither of the two factions is interested in the reality of the future of the sector, but the fact remains that the elections will determine the possible scenarios for the following months.
At the moment the prediction market Polymarket shows an almost neutral situation between the two contenders, 77 days away from the big event.
Until a few weeks ago, Harris had a share of only 30%, but in a short time, she managed to bring the forecasts back to parity.
Source: https://polymarket.com/elections
Open interest at 363 million dollars for Bitcoin Options expiring on November 8 suggests a possible rally to 80,000 dollars
On Deribit, the trader of Bitcoin options are heavily betting on the outcome of the US presidential elections, with an open interest that has exceeded 363 million dollars.
Let’s talk about the options expiring on November 8, 2024, just 3 days after the elections of the 60th president of the United States of America.
A month ago, the speculators of the crypto market started betting on the outcome of the event, gradually increasing the “notional volume”, that is the sum of put and call contracts.
At this moment, according to the data presented by Deribit Metrics, we notice a concentration of call options at the strike price of 80,000 dollars. At this price level, we find an open interest of 39 million dollars, the largest from the current market price upwards.
On the contrary, for put options, a highly watched price area is that of 45,000 dollars, with a record open interest of 39 million dollars here as well.
Overall, there is a strong interest from traders in call options for price levels between $70,000 and $140,000, highlighting a bullish bias
In fact, call options, which offer unlimited upside payoff potential at the expense of limited losses, represented 67% of the total open interest.
Source: https://www.deribit.com/statistics/BTC/metrics/options
As noted by the algorithmic trading company Wintermute in a note to its clients, regarding the analysis of Bitcoin Options in coincidence with the US elections:
“The concentration of open interest in call options at strikes around $80K and $100K suggests that market participants are positioning for a potential bull in bitcoin, while the presence of puts at a lower strike price of $45,000 indicates some level of coverage or protection against a bear.”
The expectations of investors seem to be oriented towards a post-election rise. However, the presence of a coverage level at 45,000 dollars suggests how volatile prices could be in the first days of November 2024.
Graphical analysis of the price of Bitcoin: ranging situation
While the cryptocurrency options markets attract open interest in anticipation of the US presidential elections, Bitcoin moves boringly within a large range.
The prices have indeed been “trapped” for several months now in the price range that goes from 70,000 to 55,000 dollars, with few breakout opportunities.
Today the cryptocurrency seems to be moving positively, trying to rise above the EMA 50 on the daily time frame with a movement of +2.5%.
The demand has started to be felt again, albeit timidly, after the collapse of the quotations in the first days of August. However, the situation remains uncertain and unpredictable, at least until the market breaks one of the two extremes of the range.
As already mentioned, the open interest of the derivative options markets seems oriented towards an increase, slightly tilting the analysis in favor of a long.
Source: https://it.tradingview.com/chart/1hwwyywT/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT
Even the cryptographic expert “AshCrypto” shares on X his view on the trend of Bitcoin, highlighting a sideways trend.
According to the crypto influencer, Bitcoin is in its typical “boring phase” post-halving, in which prices move without taking a clear direction.
When will this boring phase end? The projections assume that already from September we will see some decisive movement of the crypto asset.
According to AshCrypto, October will be called “Up-tober” due to the bull rallies that will occur in anticipation of the US elections.
The target for Bitcoin at the end of the bull run is between 150,000 and 180,000 dollars, with a bull case that sees the crypto soaring up to 250,000 dollars.
Fasten your seat belts traders.
BITCOIN BORING PHASE
Are you wondering why the price of
Bitcoin is just moving up and down?It is because we are in the BORING
PHASE.This phase happens BEFORE and
AFTER the HALVING.1. In the past 2 cycles, we can see that
the BORING PHASE range between
30-33 weeks.… pic.twitter.com/Pb97lt6J6a— Ash Crypto (@Ashcryptoreal) August 20, 2024