The financial forecasting market heats up with the recent initiative of Polymarket, which has introduced two prediction markets concerning Fort Knox and the possibility of an official audit of its gold reserves.
The debate on the transparency of the U.S. treasury has reignited after the increasing pressure on Donald Trump to conduct a full audit of the gold reserves.
Polymarket and the bet on the reserves of Fort Knox
On February 17, Polymarket opened two prediction markets related to Fort Knox. The first concerns the possibility that the Department for Government Efficiency (DOGE), sponsored by Elon Musk, will audit the gold reserves by May 2025. The second predicts the outcomes of such an audit, hypothesizing potential discrepancies in the official data.
At the moment, the probabilities that the audit will be carried out by April 2025 stand at 56%, suggesting widespread skepticism among investors about the possibility of an effective government intervention.
Despite the strong push for transparency, the United States Treasury has not conducted an official inspection of the gold held at Fort Knox since 1974.
Polymarket, a platform that allows betting on financial and political events using criptovalute, recorded an increase in activity during the American presidential elections.
Despite the ban on access for U.S. users, the platform continues to gain popularity among international investors for its ability to provide predictive insights on global events.
Trump silent on the audit of Fort Knox
The topic of American gold reserves has returned to the spotlight after Kentucky Senator Rand Paul formally requested an audit of the reserves on February 16.
The issue has been further amplified by the conservative commentator Glenn Beck, who sent an open letter to Donald Trump, urging immediate action to ensure transparency and trust in public accounts.
In the letter, Beck stated:
“I request the opportunity to bring a television crew under the most rigorous security measures to document and verify the presence of the American gold reserves”.
Furthermore, he added that this operation could be a decisive moment in the fight for transparency and to reaffirm the centrality of the United States in the global economic system.
Despite the support of Elon Musk, who has repeatedly advocated the need for an audit, Trump has not yet released official statements on the matter.
During his 2016 election campaign, the former President had raised doubts about the actual amount of gold held by the United States, suggesting the need for an independent audit. However, during his term, no measure in this regard was implemented.
Implications for the gold and cryptocurrency market
The speculation on Fort Knox has generated a wave of interest in the gold and cryptocurrency market. If an audit were actually conducted and revealed discrepancies in the declared reserves, one could witness significant volatility in the value of gold and the US dollar.
The forecasts of Polymarket represent a thermometer of investors’ confidence in the transparency of the American government. In a scenario where decentralized finance and cryptocurrencies are gaining ground as an alternative to traditional systems, the issue of gold reserves could take on a crucial role in future economic policies.
While the debate continues, it remains to be seen whether political and media pressure will lead to concrete action. Until then, prediction markets will continue to reflect the uncertainties and expectations of global investors.