A couple of days ago Robert Kiyosaki published a very optimistic forecast on the price of Bitcoin: 300,000 USD by the end of 2024.
BITCOIN on fire. The biggest mistake you can make is to procrastinate. Important to start, even if only for $500. Next stop $300,000 per BC in 2024
— Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) March 6, 2024
According to Kiyosaki, procrastinating the purchase of BTC at this moment would be a big mistake, so much so that he defines it as “important” to start buying even just 500 dollars in BTC.
Kiyosaki’s forecasts
Robert Kiyosaki is the famous author of the best-seller “Rich Dad, Poor Dad”.
Despite being 76 years old now, he has recently become a big supporter of Bitcoin, because he claims that the current economic-financial system is sick.
In the past, he has already made several predictions about the price of Bitcoin, almost always very optimistic.
For example in May 2022, during a bear market, he claimed that the bottom would be at $17,000, and indeed he was not far off. The bottom of that bear market was reached in November of the same year at around $15,500, just below the threshold indicated by Kiyosaki.
In February of the following year, after the rebound to $24,000, he stated that the price of Bitcoin would rise to $500,000 USD by 2025.
The current forecast is in line with last year’s February forecast, although both are still very optimistic today.
In October of last year, after the beginning of the current bull run, he stated that the price of Bitcoin was heading towards $135,000, and less than a month ago he reiterated that he believed $100,000 was achievable by June.
Bitcoin price prediction at 300,000 USD
Yesterday’s forecast is therefore more optimistic compared to the one made last October, but in line with both the one made in February 2024 and the one made in February 2023.
It seems that during the ongoing bull run, Kiyosaki went from considering a possible price increase of Bitcoin in 2024 up to $135,000 to even considering a possible increase up to $300,000.
All of this remains in line with his prediction of Bitcoin reaching $500,000 next year.
By the way, this last figure is also the one that indicates the famous Stock-to-Flow by PlanB, who however in 2021 significantly missed the prediction of Bitcoin at 100,000 USD.
It should be noted, however, that in the meantime many things have changed, and above all the ETFs on Bitcoin spot have arrived on US stock exchanges.
Even Kiyosaki had never ventured a prediction of $500,000 by 2025 before the news of the likely approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs by the SEC came out, published at the end of August 2023 after Grayscale’s court victory.
Furthermore, there were really few people who until relatively recently imagined that the price of Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high before the halving.
So far, reality has proven to be more optimistic than forecasts, if we consider the average values, so Kiyosaki’s very optimistic forecast may not be completely wrong.
The medium/long-term trend
Actually, it didn’t surprise many that the bottom of the last bear market was just above $15,000. Not only did Kiyosaki come close to it, but other analysts did too. Many, for example, argued that it could have been around $13,000.
However, at that time there was no approval on the horizon for Bitcoin spot ETFs, so the situation was relatively more normal, and perhaps a little more predictable.
The turning point came in 2023, not only thanks to the return above $30,000 in a relatively short time, but above all thanks to the news at the end of August, when a court effectively ordered the SEC to approve Bitcoin spot ETFs.
Since then a lot has changed, so much so that in October a bull run was triggered, still ongoing, almost completely unexpected.
If things had gone as in the previous two cycles, the price of BTC should have reached the halving at around 35,000 USD, a figure not much higher than that of October 2023, when it rose to 30,000 USD.
Without ETFs, the scenario would probably have been this, or something similar.
Instead, just a few days ago, about a month and a half before the halving, the price briefly rose above $69,000, almost double the expected $35,000.
The current trend is therefore completely anomalous, so even optimistic forecasts like those of Kiyosaki at this moment seem to have some probability of being correct.