Decidedly positive forecasting on the future trend of Bitcoin’s price have been circulating in recent days.
However, two clarifications need to be made.
The first is that this forecasting does not concern short-term or very short-term movements, but medium- to long-term ones. Indeed, they refer to the possible trend of Bitcoin’s price in the coming months or even years.
The second is that they are not the only ones circulating. Indeed there are also negative ones, but the very fact that there are very positive ones coming out at this specific time is quite relevant.
Standard Chartered Bank’s forecasting of Bitcoin’s price
Standard Chartered Bank calls itself a “universal bank.” For although it is headquartered in London, Britain, up to 90% of its profits come from its branches in Asia, Africa and the Middle East.
It manages about $820 billion in assets, employs 85,000 people and turns over $16 billion.
It was founded as early as 1613, and is listed on the London Stock Exchange.
According to a report by Reuters, the price of Bitcoin in 2024 could exceed $100,000, according to a forecast by Standard Chartered.
Indeed, to be precise, the bank sees it possible to exceed $50,000 already by the end of this year, while next year it believes it is possible to reach $120,000.
This prediction was actually made in April, when the assumption Standard Chartered made was $100,000 by the end of 2024, but an analyst at the same bank, Geoff Kendrick, has since said that the target has been raised by 20%.
The reason for this rise would be that with a higher market value of BTC than at the beginning of the year, miners no longer have to sell all the BTC they mine, thus reducing the selling pressure.
And the higher the price goes, the less BTC they will be forced to sell.
Kendrick himself estimated that miners are forced to sell all the BTC they mine when prices are low, but in the event that the price reaches $50,000 they would probably sell only 20% or 30%.
This phenomenon would obviously be accentuated by next year’s halving, when all of a sudden the number of BTC they can mine will be cut in half.
However, it is worth mentioning that Standard Chartered last year estimated a possible drop in the price of Bitcoin to $5,000.
Fundstrat Global Advisors’ forecasting
What turns out to be even more bullish is the revision by Fundstrat Global Advisors.
Fundstrat Global Advisors is not a traditional secular bank operating in traditional markets, but a financial advisory firm specializing in cryptocurrencies.
It was established only in 2014, and the two co-founders are Tom Lee, and John Bai.
Tom Lee has long been known to be very bullish on Bitcoin. It is worth noting that his predictions over time have often proven to be correct, even if they turn out to be overstated at times.
Lee recently described a decidedly bullish scenario regarding all financial markets as a whole, especially the US financial markets.
In this interview with CNBC, the co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors says the price of Bitcoin in the next five years could rise more than 500% from current levels.
Indeed, he said he estimates the possible reaching of $200,000 by 2028, which would be after the next two halvings (2024 and 2028).
According to Lee the driving force will be the possible approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US by the SEC, and in particular its relevance to the crypto market when it is present in traditional markets.
Lee believes that for every single dollar of inflow on this ETF, the increase in Bitcoin’s value could be $4, which is with a price multiplier of four to one.
For example, if market demand for this ETF were $200 billion, BTC’s market capitalization could increase by $800 billion.
Short-term forecasting
Regarding the short term, on the other hand, the forecasts circulating are not so rosy.
It is worth mentioning that there is nothing to guarantee that the above two forecasts are correct: they could also both turn out to be wrong.
That said, in the short term several analysts see a further descent from current levels, with a possible return to that $27,000 that characterized the long phase of lateralization that ended in late June.
However, it is not ruled out that later the price could also rebound above $35,000, so in the short term there is actually a lot of uncertainty.
The fact is that the macroeconomic situation is still evolving, and as early as tomorrow things could change with the Fed’s decision on rates, but especially with Governor Powell’s subsequent press conference.