Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin almost managed to reach new all-time highs: will it succeed today?
What are the signals that can help us understand if the path is the right one, or if yesterday was just a flash spike?
Will the price of Bitcoin attack the historical highs today?
Currently, the highest price reached by BTC is approximately $73,800, touched on March 14 of this year.
It must be said, however, that on March 11 it opened at $69,000, and on March 15 it closed at $69,400.
Furthermore, only one day closed above $73,000, namely March 13, 2024, because on March 14 the closing price was below $71,400.
In fact, not only at that time was there a single day with a closing above $73,000, but there was only one other with a closing above $72,000, on March 11.
Yesterday’s closing was at 72,700$, so although it did not manage to reach 73,800$, it was still the second highest closing ever, after that of March 13, even higher than the day when the current all-time high was reached.
It should be noted that since then there had never been any day with a closing above $72,000, so including yesterday’s closing in its entire history Bitcoin has closed a trading day above $72,000 only three times.
The positive signals
Analyzing what happened in March, the all-time high was recorded the day after the largest closure in history was recorded.
On March 13, in fact, for the first and only time (for now) in the history of Bitcoin, there was a close above $73,000, and the all-time high was recorded the day after, on March 14, at $73,800 but with a close below $72,000.
So, given that yesterday’s closing was the highest of this period, and the second highest ever, it is not to be excluded that today Bitcoin could reach new highs.
To tell the truth, there are several analysts who hypothesize that in this phase the price of BTC could go well beyond $73,800, because it might aim for $75,000 or even $80,000.
The strongest signal comes from the USA, because next Tuesday there are the presidential elections, and generally after the USA presidential elections the dollar begins a period of weakening that lasts several months.
The price of Bitcoin in the medium/long term tends to be inversely correlated to the dollar, so if the dollar weakens, Bitcoin strengthens. What is happening these days is probably a simple attempt by investors to anticipate this trend by purchasing BTC before its price rises.
The negative signals: is a Bitcoin price retracement expected today?
However, there are also some negative signals.
Before highlighting them, it is necessary to highlight another thing.
Such signals have been present in the markets since the end of September, but since then the price of Bitcoin has risen by 20%.
The fact is that when a Bitcoin bull run starts, there is no negative signal that can stop it. In the case of a bull run, the price of Bitcoin stops following the general trend of financial markets and tends to temporarily decouple from everything and everyone.
This means that the current negative signals may not carry much weight in the short term.
In theory, the most negative signal should be the Dollar Index itself, given that since the end of September it has risen from 100 to over 104 points. It may seem like a small rise, but for an index like this, it is a significant rise, especially if done in just one month.
In this regard, however, it must be said that for about a week it has not been able to exceed 104.5 points, which could be the maximum level of this period. If it continues to fail to clearly and durably surpass this threshold, the negative effect on the price of BTC would not occur.
The other negative signal is that of the MOVE index, which has been rising for almost two weeks. Bitcoin tends to be inversely correlated with the MOVE as well, but in the last two weeks, it has moved downward only slightly, and only until last Friday. Since Saturday, however, it has started an upward movement that still seems to be ongoing.
There is also a third potentially negative signal, the daily RSI index has risen into the overbought zone, but Bitcoin in the past has already remained in the overbought zone several other times, even for several days or weeks.
The Bitcoin spot ETFs
The fact is that for some days now, the spot BTC ETFs on the US exchanges have been recording record numbers.
Yesterday, even in just one day, they recorded inflows totaling 870 million dollars, the largest single net daily inflow since they were launched.
Furthermore, since last Wednesday, they have been recording positive net daily inflows every day.
Their trading volumes are also record-breaking, as until now we had never reached yesterday’s levels.
This suggests that it is also and above all the traditional financial markets that are driving this small rally, and given that in those markets BTC only arrived in January in the USA, there is still plenty of room and time to grow further.