Analysis of Bitcoin price: BTC aims for a new ATH after today’s breakout

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Today, Bitcoin seems particularly fit on the graphic front: BTC marks a +4.40% and approaches to set a new ATH in view of the implementation of the halving for the cryptographic protocol.

The bullish breakout of the symmetrical triangle could push the cryptocurrency prices around $80,000.

Meanwhile, derivative market data gives hope that Bitcoin could explode in a short time: the open interest on BTC has returned above 20 billion dollars.
Let’s see all the details below.

Bitcoin (BTC) breaks out to the upside the symmetrical triangle on the daily time frame and aims for a new ATH

Bitcoin seems determined to set a new all-time high (ATH) in the coming weeks, with BTC growing by 4.40% today, reaching over $72,400.

It is worth noting how today’s candle coin has broken out of an ascending symmetrical triangle to the upside, which could trigger a strong growth up to at least $80,000.

The triangle in question, as described in the technical analysis, is outlined by two trend lines connecting the lows of March 20 and April 3 with the highs of March 15 and 27

As highlighted by Markus Thielen, founder of the research company 10X Research:

“If the breakout is bullish, as we suspect, Bitcoin could exceed 80,000 in the coming weeks, if not sooner.”

From the current prices, it would be a growth of about 10%: a significant figure for an asset that capitalizes 1.4 trillion dollars and moves volumes for 31 billion dollars every day.

However, if the impact with BTC’s ATH, around $73,700, were to prove positive for prices, we could easily see such growth in the short term.

It will be very important to also monitor the trend of the RSI and spot volumes, with both metrics currently not encouraging the bulls’ reaction.

bitcoin btc ath
Technical analysis: daily price chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Coinbase market

Bitcoin’s halving, expected in about 11 days, could give that necessary boost to BTC to reach the ATH at $80,000.

Usually after the quadrennial event of halving miners’ rewards, there is a significant price growth for the cryptocurrency, although this time the narrative of Bitcoin ETF may have monopolized market attention limiting potential positive post-halving effects.

What is certain is that in this market phase volatility begins to increase, suggesting greater turbulence in prices in one of the most anticipated moments by bitcoiners.

Traders are predominantly betting on the rise these days, even though the market is still in the midst of the gray area of uncertainty.

In such a context, we emphasize how today’s breakout came after the non-farms payrolls report in the USA highlighted resilience in the US labor market, stimulating more speculative markets.

At the same time, in order to continue fueling confidence in risk-on markets, the FED will have to initiate the first rate cut in June, as part of the expansionary monetary policy anticipated by Powell’s speeches to investors.

At the moment, the chances of a cut in June are 46%.

fed interest rate target
Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Euphoria returns also in the derivatives market: Bitcoin’s Open Interest back above 20 billion dollars

While Bitcoin seems to be aiming for a new ATH at $80,000, derivatives traders are increasing their exposure in order to take advantage of the potential price increase in the coming days.

As shown by the data from Coinalyze, today the overall open interest on BTC has increased significantly more than the price of the crypto asset, bringing the metric above 20 billion dollars.

This testifies how the speculative attention of market actors in the cryptographic market is still particularly high.

It will be interesting to see if now the BTC’s market cap will be able to surpass the record of 21.9 billion dollars recorded two weeks ago in the midst of reaching a new ATH for the coin.

Bitcoin btc futures open interest
Source: https://coinalyze.net/bitcoin/open-interest/

Very interesting to note how in this positive outlook for Bitcoin, the funding rate of the asset in futures exchanges has remained almost stable around 0.02%.

We remind you that the funding rate determines how much longs must pay shorts to keep their positions open (or vice versa in case of negative funding).

The higher the funding, the more leverage is required by traders and the more the market is at risk from explosive movements that tend to reset uncontrolled euphoria.

Just before the mid-March crash that led to the liquidation of many leveraged traders, the funding rate itself was at 0.07%.

A level so low of this indicator at a time when Bitcoin is approaching to break new all-time highs is encouraging because it establishes a healthy speculative situation, which could fuel a new rally in the short term.

There is still plenty of room for a bull market movement!

Source: https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/BTC