How many years of prison will SBF serve? Betting on Polymarket is now open


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Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), founder and former CEO of FTX, will be officially sentenced this week: in the meantime, on Polymarket, bets have started on the number of years of prison he will be given.

SBF and his conviction: the years of prison bet on Polymarket

SBF or Sam Bankman-Fried is waiting to receive his official sentence this week, which will reveal how many years in prison he will have to serve. 

Meanwhile, on the decentralized prediction market platform of Polymarket, users are placing their bets. 

“The judge in the SBF trial is about to commit a real massacre.”

The bet on the sentence for the number of years in prison for SBF seems to have several equal merits. Currently, the most bet range is between 20 and 50 years in jail. 

Polymarket is a platform where users buy and sell shares using cryptocurrencies, to bet on the probability of future events occurring. Typically, the betting topics are political, cultural, news, and technology related. 

SBF and the prison sentence ruling: all bets on Polymarket

Regarding the SBF case and how long his sentence will be, at the time of writing, the total bets amount to $495,783 distributed as follows:

  • for the 1% on sentences of less than 5 years in prison;
  • 2% on 5-10 years of prison;
  • 10% on 10-20 years of prison;
  • 28% on 20-30 years of prison;
  • 27% on 30-40 years of prison;
  • 28% on 40-50 years of prison;
  • 8% on the penalty exceeding 50 years in prison. 

The estimated date by which users can place their bets is March 28th. 

In addition to this bet on the number of years of conviction, then, on Polymarket there are other bets always related to SBF.

Altogether, at the moment, the equivalent of almost $300,000 has been bet on “Will SBF’s sentence be more than 50 years?”, almost $74,000 on “SBF reduces his sentence because he is autistic” and almost $137,000 on “Will SBF be sentenced to life?”. 

The real situation on the case of Sam Bankman-Fried

If the data on Polymarket is a bit uncertain, this is also due to what happened recently in reality, regarding the sentence for SBF.

And in fact, while public prosecutors have requested a sentence of 40 to 50 years in prison for the co-founder and former CEO of FTX, SBF’s lawyers argue that the most appropriate prison sentence would be 6.5 years.

Basically, Sam Bankman-Fried has already been found guilty by the judge on 7 different charges, such as fraud and conspiracy. What is being discussed now is only the extent of the penalty. 

SBF’s lawyers focus on the fact that the cases mentioned by the public prosecutors to request 40-50 years of sentence are not comparable to that of their client. Moreover, the reduction of the sentence is justified by the restitution of the funds lost by the defrauded creditors.