The spot that Bitwise has published on X to promote the future launch of their Bitcoin spot ETF is enjoying a resounding success.
The commercial has already surpassed one million views in less than 24 hours on Bitwise’s official profile alone, but it has also been published on many other profiles, accumulating many more views than it may seem by analyzing only the data from the official profile.
Later, he also published another one that has already reached almost 300,000 views.
The fact is that the launch of this ETF is not yet completely certain, as it still needs to receive approval from the SEC in order to be put on the market.
The same agency has refused to approve these derivatives for years, so in theory its approval should not even be completely taken for granted.
Instead, the fact that Bitwise is already starting the advertising campaign seems to mean that approval will come.
The spot on Bitwise’s future Bitcoin ETF
The two spots are very similar, and in fact they are definitely powerful.
They clearly target private investors, not investment companies, and it is because of this “retail” nature that they are probably having so much success.
It is hard to imagine that in the entire history of ETFs there have ever been ones so effectively advertised even before their release on the markets.
I am actually a relatively niche financial product, and yet less than 24 hours after the launch of the commercials, several million people have already watched them, even though they do not yet exist on the markets themselves.
Furthermore, the first of the two commercials, the most successful one, is performed by the actor known for portraying “the most interesting man in the world,” Jonathan Goldsmith.
Goldsmith has a decades-long career as a character actor, but he became a star only after playing the role of “The Most Interesting Man in the World” in an advertising campaign for Dos Equis in 2010.
In the Bitwise commercial, Goldsmith only says two things.
The first one is:
“Do you know what’s interesting these days? Bitcoin”.
It refers to the concept of “most interesting in the world”, but this time referring to Bitcoin.
The second one is:
“Look for Bitwise, my friends”
While he says it, a message appears defining Bitwise as specialists in collateralized crypto ETFs (i.e. spot).
Bitwise’s background and commitment to launching its first Bitcoin spot ETF in the US
Bitwise, in fact, is a company specialized in crypto funds and ETFs.
Until now, it has already launched six crypto funds on the markets, connected to Bitcoin, Ethereum, or indices. Obviously, none of these are crypto collateralized funds and tradable in the USA, because the SEC has not yet authorized them.
For example, their ETF BITC (Bitwise Bitcoin Strategy Optimum Roll ETF) is listed on the NYSE Arca (New York Stock Exchange), but it is not collateralized in BTC. Instead, it is collateralized with futures contracts on the price of Bitcoin.
Instead, the ETF on Bitcoin spot will be listed on a US exchange, but collateralized directly in BTC. It is expected to be approved along with all the others in the first days of January.
Bitcoin is not a company. In fact, there is not even a company behind Bitcoin: behind BTC there is only a community of miners, node operators, and users.
Therefore, there has never been, and there will never be, an official marketing of Bitcoin. All the propaganda that is carried out on Bitcoin is due to individual private initiatives that are not coordinated by someone who has something to gain from it.
While the propaganda of BlackRock is unlikely to be aimed at private investors, Bitwise’s propaganda is, and this is due to the differences between the two issuers’ clientele.
However, this means that there will be different types of promotion for Bitcoin spot ETFs, and therefore also for Bitcoin itself, depending on the target audience.
Note that campaigns like these in favor of Bitcoin had never been done before now.
The first and most important cryptocurrency initially targeted only normal retail users, and not at all high net worth individuals.
Now, however, these ETFs will be launched on traditional stock exchanges, where they could be appreciated even by people who have never before approached this type of investment.
So, a new season also opens for advertising regarding Bitcoin, even if it is indirect advertising.
However, it should be noted that in the case of ETFs on Bitcoin spot, the fact that they have to be collateralized directly in BTC means that there will be a close link between their potential success in the markets and the success of Bitcoin.
The impact on the price
The fact is that for every action of a Bitcoin spot ETF issued on traditional exchanges, the ETF managers will have to purchase portions of BTC on the crypto spot markets and immobilize it in a secure wallet, most likely offline.
Therefore, the more demand there will be for these derivatives, the more shares will be issued, and the more BTC will actually be taken from the crypto markets.
This should reduce the supply of BTC on the crypto markets, and if the demand does not decrease, the price could only increase.
If we add to this that starting from April 2024 thanks to the halving the supply will still decrease, since miners will have fewer BTC to sell to finance their activity, the two things could add up, causing the supply to decrease much more than the demand.
Therefore, a possible price increase is expected.
Possible retracement ahead?
However, this is a medium to long-term dynamic, while in the short term things could go differently.
If, as many expect, the logic of “buy the rumor, sell the news” were to prevail once again, at the time of the publication of the official news of the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the price of Bitcoin could undergo a retracement.
But things are not that simple, because it could still take about twenty days.
During these twenty days, the BTC price could even rise further, to the point that the hypothesis is circulating that by the end of the year it could manage to exceed $45,000 as well.
To be honest, many were expecting a retracement in the last few days, but there was only a temporary correction that seems to have already ended.
So, if the logic of buy the rumor, sell the news were to prevail, the price of BTC could rise above $45,000 by the end of December, and maybe even attempt to reach $50,000 at the beginning of January, and then decline after the news is published.
It should be remembered, however, that others argue instead that the retracement could come earlier, possibly in the next few days.
It is not even known to what level it could be traced back.
Among those who believe that it will happen soon, the hypothesis that seems to be more popular is a retest around $30,000. Among those who instead believe in the “buy the rumor, sell the news” theory, the hypothesis that the retracement could stop at $35,000, or maybe even higher, seems to circulate more.
At this moment, however, it is impossible to say with certainty how it will end.